Fall 2004

After almost 3 years of intense heat, the big chill has arrived! Well not quite, but we are taking a bit of a breather. Our view on the frontline is that there is still a lot more to come over the next 10 years (I would not be at all surprised to see the prices at least 50% higher) but in order for that to happen the growth rate needs to be reasonable (5% per year not per month!). From February to April of this year the market reached a frenzy which now requires correction, so expect to see prices in January 2005 returning closer to those one year earlier. If this happens there is no reason why growth on a more modest level cannot continue. The only potential exception to this could be the heart of Downtown South where the rate of new construction has outstripped demand from long term residents. If too many speculative players decide to leave the market at the same time a more significant short term price adjustment may take place. However, even here, the smart money will stay in for the long haul.